Crypto may have benefited from the failure of the US CLARITY Act, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

The CLARITY Act failed to get the 60 votes needed to move forward in the US Senate after years of negotiations. But instead of hurting the crypto market, its failure was followed by a strong rally across several digital assets.

Unexpected Wins in Washington

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rose about 11% after the vote. Some other tokens posted much bigger gains. NEAR jumped 125%, Uniswap rose 49%, and Avalanche gained 44%, according to Hougan. The reaction may seem surprising because the crypto industry had strongly supported the bill. Hougan said the industry wanted the legal certainty that CLARITY promised. But added that the final version also included several compromises that could have created new restrictions for crypto companies.

One major area is stablecoins. The exec explained that the proposed legislation would have restricted platforms from paying customers interest or rewards on stablecoin balances. With the bill now stalled, existing stablecoin rules remain in place. Hougan said this could benefit companies such as Coinbase, which use stablecoin rewards to attract users.

CLARITY would have created a national licensing system for spot crypto exchanges. It also could have placed limits on the way exchanges combine trading and brokerage services. With the bill gone, established exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken avoid those changes for now.

Instead of waiting for new legislation and lengthy studies, the SEC recently allowed certain tokenized US stocks to trade through blockchain-based systems under temporary rules, which, according to Hougan, could give tokenization companies a chance to test the technology in real markets sooner.

Revenue-generating tokens are another area that has benefited from clearer regulatory guidance. Several tokens, including NEAR and Uniswap, have gained strongly while using protocol revenue for token buybacks. The SEC has also clarified that, once a blockchain network is functional, announcing a buyback program does not by itself turn a token into a security.

There is still a major risk as regulation can change when a new administration takes office. A future SEC or CFTC leadership could take a tougher approach to crypto. Despite this, Hougan expects “crypto to be too big to crush.”

Progress Under Existing Rules

Michael Saylor, co-founder and former CEO of Strategy, also sees the failure differently. He recently argued that crypto may be better served by working with supportive regulators at the SEC, CFTC, Treasury, and banking agencies than accepting the restrictions included in the bill’s final version.

Saylor believes the sector should use the next few years to build compliant crypto products under existing rules instead of rushing to accept a compromise simply to get legislation passed. His focus is on products that can lower costs, expand access, and give users more control over their money.

The post Crypto May Be Better Off Without CLARITY Act, Says Bitwise CIO: ‘Too Big to Crush’ appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin outperformed stocks and gold in September as it entered the fourth quarter on a high note, according to Santiment. The world’s largest crypto asset gained around 8% during the month. In comparison, the S&P 500 saw little movement, while gold fell by more than 6%.

Several altcoins also recovered as investor interest returned to the market.

What Changed in September?

Fresh capital inflows supported Bitcoin’s rally. US-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted billions of dollars in September, including several large inflow days toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, Strategy added another 1,665 BTC to its holdings, which was indicative of continued corporate accumulation. Strive also expanded its corporate Bitcoin holdings by purchasing 1,107 for $94.5 million.

Improving economic conditions also helped the market. US inflation data for August came in below expectations, easing pressure on Treasury yields as well as reducing concerns about another Federal Reserve rate hike. While stock markets showed a limited response, cryptocurrencies recorded stronger gains following months of weak sentiment and heavy short positions.

Santiment found that crypto markets are entering Q4 with several potential growth drivers.

“Continued ETF demand, corporate accumulation, improving regulatory clarity, and renewed altcoin participation give traders reasons to stay optimistic.”

But while higher yields and crowded leverage can still create sharp pullbacks, the analytics firm stated that “crypto currently has catalysts that traditional assets simply haven’t matched.”

What’s Next?

Bitcoin is stuck just below $86,000, and Crypto Patel thinks this level could decide where the asset heads next. If BTC breaks above this level and holds, a move toward $100,000 could be back on the table. If it fails, however, traders will be watching $82,886, $80,300, and $76,400 for support. BIT Research’s latest report, meanwhile, has put a much bigger number on Bitcoin’s current cycle. The firm said that the bear market has likely ended and predicted an upside range of $185,000 to $215,000.

Whale wallets are also stacking up. In fact, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 41,025 coins in just 10 days, pushing their total holdings to 13.64 million.

Bitcoin’s longer-term setup is still looking healthy as the MVRV Z-Score remained above its 365-day moving average. That level has historically acted as support during broader rallies. It doesn’t mean BTC is guaranteed to keep climbing, though. Short-term pullbacks can still hit, and they could be sharp.

For now, the bigger thing to watch is whether the Z-Score can hold above that average. If it does, CryptoQuant’s analysis states that the broader valuation trend remains supportive of further upside. A sustained break below the 365-day average would be a different story and could signal that the longer-term structure is starting to weaken.

The post Why Bitcoin Is Starting Q4 on Stronger Footing Than Traditional Markets appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin analyst Frank Cappelleri says the OG cryptocurrency’s chart resembles the setup that preceded a 400% rally last cycle.

According to the CappThesis founder, the same technical base could support another leg higher.

Chart Mirrors the 2022 to 2023 Recovery

Speaking on CNBC, Cappelleri compared Bitcoin’s current structure with the period spanning 2022 and 2023, when BTC suffered a decline of about 70%.

He pointed to a chart of Bitcoin’s roughly 54% decline this cycle and set it beside the 70% drop mentioned above. “This also looks like a bullish pattern to me,” he said. That earlier slide ended in a large breakout, and he argued that BTC can move up hard once momentum takes hold.

“Bitcoin can really rally,” the analyst said. “It’s a 400% gain.”

However, he was careful not to project the same return this time. “Not calling for that,” Cappelleri stated, adding that he was instead looking for “a very similar foundation” that could eventually take Bitcoin back to new highs.

Cappelleri also pointed to BTC’s historical response to technical signals, saying, “Bitcoin really does well with technicals,” and arguing that its past price behavior makes those signals difficult to ignore.

BTC was valued at about $84,000 at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency experienced an increase of just over 1% in the last 24 hours and has remained more or less stable during the week. In addition, it has appreciated by about 10% in 14 days and 7% in 30 days but is 27% lower than where it was around the same time last year. Meanwhile, the asset’s third-quarter gain came to about 42%, its best Q3 since 2017.

Other Market Signals Point to a Contested Setup

As CryptoPotato reported yesterday, larger Bitcoin holders have been adding to their balances while smaller wallets have remained relatively unchanged. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 41,025 BTC over 10 days, taking their combined balance to 13.64 million BTC, with such scenarios in the past often leading to stronger market conditions.

BIT Research has also argued that the bear market ended after Bitcoin held above $62,900 in late July. Its analysis puts the True Market Mean, an estimate of the average holder cost, at around $76,900, thus taking away another source of selling pressure. The firm outlined a bullish scenario of $185,000 to $215,000, while acknowledging that the timing and path remain uncertain.

But other analysis is less straightforward, such as from Ali Martinez, who noted that BTC had fallen after each of the four previous US midterm elections, with declines ranging from 27% to 72%, adding another source of uncertainty as November approaches.

The post Bitcoin Chart Echoes Cycle That Delivered 400% Gains: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Although BTC is still in the red on a YTD basis, the past three months showed a significant improvement in its overall state, with September closing well in the green as well.

The focus has now shifted to October, which has been BTC’s greenest month since data has been tracked on CoinGlass. The question is: will history repeat, or will last year’s edition reign again?

3 In a Row

The primary cryptocurrency bottomed on July 1 at under $58,000 and rebounded in the following month to close with a 7.36% increase. Although the first half of August was quite sluggish, the second was spectacular as BTC exploded above $75,000 and ended the month with a 25% surge – the most since October 2023.

It entered September at around $77,000 before it quickly skyrocketed to $82,000. The bears were quick to reemerge at this point and didn’t allow it to continue further. Just the opposite; BTC slipped by several grand and slumped to $75,000 in the middle of the month as the CLARITY Act failed in the US Senate and the Fed hiked interest rates.

To the surprise of many, given the aforementioned negative developments, the cryptocurrency bounced off immediately and reclaimed the $80,000 line by the end of that particular week. It hasn’t traded below that level ever since. Moreover, it flew to $87,000 on September 22 and 23, but it was stopped. Despite losing some ground by the end of September, it still closed with a 6.33% pump, making it the third consecutive green month and fifth for the year.

Uptober or Redtober Next?

Ever since CoinGlass started tracking BTC’s performance in 2013, October has been the asset’s greenest month. 10 out of the past 13 editions have brought gains, and only three were in the red. When we add the three-month streak bitcoin has been on since July, the expectations for the next 30 days have increased considerably.

Moreover, many analysts have determined that BTC has reclaimed key resistance levels, which now means that the bull market is on, even though CryptoQuant warned yesterday that it might have slowed down.

Speaking to CryptoPotato, Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, said yesterday that “October has a strong historical track record for bitcoin,” but “seasonality alone is not an investment thesis.” After all, recall that BTC reached its latest ATH precisely last October before it crumbled in the notorious massacre that left over $19 billion in liquidations in 24 hours and went on a months-long red streak.

“Bitcoin’s median October return has historically been around 11%–14%. ETF inflows, declining exchange balances and corporate buying support the bullish case, while high interest rates, oil prices and renewed inflation pressure remain the main headwinds,” Zhang added.

The researcher outlined the base-case range for the month of $78,000-$95,000, but noted that if BTC holds the key $82,000 support and flips $87,500 into one, then $95,000 should be the next major target. On the other hand, a decisive break below $80,000 would “invalidate the seasonal bullish setup.”

The post Bitcoin Enters Its Most Bullish Month After Massive Q3: Uptober or Redtober Next? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Ripple’s native token just ended September well in the green, extending its streak that began with a minor increase in July. All eyes are now on October on several fronts. The question is: can XRP continue its run, or will the last two October editions take their toll?

XRP Went Hard in September

Recall that August was the cross-border token’s most successful month in over a year, when it skyrocketed by 30% from start to finish. Moreover, it had dipped to just under $1.00 mid-month, which makes its close even more impressive. XRP entered September on a high note, not only because of the spectacular August but because it had closed all four previous Septembers in the green.

The ninth month of the year was indeed positive on a few fronts. First, the price gained just under 10%, and XRP ended it at over $1.50. It tried to take down the $1.60 resistance on several occasions but to no avail. In addition, the spot ETFs tracking its performance marked some major wins.

Only three days were slightly in the red: September 2, 17, and 18. On a broader scale, though, the funds have not seen a single red week since early July. Data from SoSoValue shows that the ETFs closed September well in the green, adding over $120 million. Moreover, the cumulative net inflows reached a new all-time high of nearly $1.8 billion.

What Does October Hold?

October, as a month, holds particular significance in the hearts of the cryptocurrency community. Major gains over the years earned it a well-deserved nickname, “Uptober.” However, there have been major exceptions over the years at the broader market level, while Ripple’s XRP has not always benefited during the month.

For example, the past two editions delivered double-digit losses for the cross-border altcoin. It plunged by 16.7% in 2024 and experienced a mind-blowing correction, alongside the rest of the market, last year, after the notorious October 10 massacre.

Data from CryptoRank shows that only five out of the last 13 Octobers have been in the green for XRP. The last one was in 2023, when the asset jumped by an impressive 16.5%. As such, XRP enters the new month at a crossroads, given its notable three-month green streak but also its controversial October history.

The post XRP in October: Will Ripple’s Streak Continue After 3 Consecutive Green Months? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin climbed above $87,400 last week, but the rally has since lost momentum. The world’s largest cryptocurrency then tested the $83,000 range before it surged past the upper boundary of its weekly range at $85,000.

Amidst the stagnation, larger holders are increasing their holdings again.

Whale Accumulation Returns

According to blockchain analytics platform Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 41,025 units over the past 10 days. Their total balance has now reached 13.64 million BTC, equal to about 67.93% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Santiment explained that these whale and shark wallets are now at their highest holdings since the market rally in mid-August.

There is a clear difference between large and small holders. Wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have remained mostly unchanged during the same period. Santiment revealed that stronger market conditions have historically appeared when larger holders accumulate while smaller traders sell.

However, the analytics firm said the current pattern is not a guaranteed signal for Bitcoin’s price. Market watchers will likely focus on whether large holders continue adding BTC and whether retail investors begin reducing their positions. The trend could provide another indicator of changing market sentiment in the coming days.

Adding to the bullish picture, BIT Research said Bitcoin’s bear market may have already ended. The firm identified the cycle low in late July after the asset held above $62,900 and showed signs of weakening downside momentum. Since then, BTC has reclaimed key levels, including its 21-week moving average at $69,272, and moved above its March 2024 high of $73,084.

The report also highlighted Bitcoin’s cost basis. The True Market Mean currently stands at $76,897, which essentially means that the typical holder is back in profit. This could reduce selling pressure from investors looking to exit at break-even. The firm expects an upside range of $185,000 to $215,000 in its bullish scenario.

However, crypto analyst Doctor Profit speculated a short-term pullback before BTC’s next move higher. He pointed to bearish signals across several indicators, including RSI, MACD/PPO, and MFI, while also noting weaker trend strength on the ADX indicator.

ETF Inflows and Corporate Buying

Even as the market moves through a quieter stretch, institutional demand is still showing up. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, attracted a whopping $2.4 billion last week. This week started at a slower pace, but the flow has remained positive. The funds raked in just over $31 million on Monday and another $66 million on Tuesday.

Corporate buyers have also stayed active. Strategy added another 1,665 BTC over the past week. The company paid an average of $85,681 per coin, taking its total holdings to 847,666 units. Strive has added to the buying activity as well. CEO Matt Cole said the company spent $94.5 million on 1,107 BTC at an average price of $85,400. Its total holdings have now reached 27,462.

The post Bitcoin’s Biggest Holders Ramp Up Buying While Retail Traders Remain Flat appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, told an interviewer at KBW 2026 in Seoul that he expects to see Ethereum hit $10,000 by the end of the year.

That’s more than three times the current price near $2,700, with ETH still trading about 46% below its all-time high.

The $10K Case for Ethereum

In a clip CoinDesk posted on X from the KBW2026 event, Hayes gave a direct answer when asked for his Ethereum price prediction:

“$10,000 by the end of the year.”

He added that he likes ETH because he can put a large amount of money into it without expecting a sudden 75% loss from an exploit. Hayes also addressed why Ethereum has lagged other networks at different points of the cycle, putting it all down to narratives. He pointed to Solana capturing the meme coin narrative and rising quickly, while Ethereum had become slower as competing blockchains took some of the activity.

“Obviously, Ethereum pioneered this whole decentralized computer thing and then was the victim of its own success, was slow and whatever,” he said. “And there were other challengers that picked up the slack.”

Still, he argued that Ethereum remains the most secure layer one because it has the largest market capitalization.

Hayes’s own ETH trades have not always been well-timed. In August, he sold 2,365 ETH at about $1,821, a loss of $241,000, after buying 7,213 ETH at an average of $1,923. And that was not the first time. In July, he sold 5,900 units for nearly $10 million after buying them days earlier for $10.58 million, incurring a loss of more than $600,000.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was down 1% over 24 hours and nearly 3% in the last seven days, but was still up more than 11% across two weeks and 9% higher than where it was a month ago.

The investor’s $10,000 forecast requires ETH to gain roughly 3.7 times its current price, and that gap is notable because the token is still about 46% below its $4,946 all-time high.

ETF Flows Keep Ethereum in Focus

Ethereum’s quarterly record looks different from its short-term pullback. Coinglass data shows it gained just under 70% in the third quarter of 2026 after falling 29.26% in Q1 and 25.28% in Q2.

Meanwhile, spot ETF activity added another source of buying, with Ethereum ETFs recording $892 million in net inflows during September, with only one trading day left in the month.

However, the streak of daily inflows that started on September 18 ended yesterday with a $2.8 million outflow, while the previous week brought $689.9 million of net inflows. The activity has lifted cumulative inflows to $13.95 billion.

The post Arthur Hayes Predicts Ethereum Will Reach $10K by Year-End appeared first on CryptoPotato.

BIT Research published a report on Wednesday arguing that Bitcoin’s bear market is over, with one upside scenario for this cycle running from $185,000 to $215,000.

The primary cryptocurrency is trading above $83,000 and looks set to finish its third straight month in the green, pushing quarterly gains to 42%.

BIT Calls the Bottom on Holder Profits

The firm says it called the cycle low in late July, after Bitcoin hit a downside target from Elliott Wave analysis and held above $62,900.

Weekly RSI, a gauge of how hard prices are falling, stopped dropping in June and July even as price made new lows, a split the report compares to the 2022 bottom. BTC then crossed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and reclaimed $70,000. It now trades around $83,000, above its March 2024 high of $73,084.

The report leaned on cost basis, with the True Market Mean, the estimated average price holders paid, sitting at $76,897, so the typical holder and the average spot ETF buyer are back in profit; therefore, in the analysts’ view, this removes a source of selling pressure.

Another thing BIT considered was the fact that US federal debt has passed $40 trillion, and rising Treasury yields caused by worries over government finances can send money toward gold and BTC.

Its debt model gives a reference valuation near $105,000, but the main headwind is a stronger dollar, with traders pricing in more Fed rate hikes and the Strait of Hormuz still closed. However, the firm does not expect it to derail the rally, since past dollar strength has hurt gold more than Bitcoin.

The OG crypto has traded between $83,000 and $85,000 since a rejection near $87,000 last week, and at the time of writing, CoinGecko showed it just above that $83,000 level, although it represented a dip of over 4% in seven days.

Still, that price is a nearly 10% improvement across two weeks and more than 7% higher than where it was 30 days ago. Coinglass data puts the third quarter at +42.22%, the best quarter since Q4 2024 and the best Q3 performance since 2017.

ETF flows have also improved, with the funds recording $2.8 billion of net inflows in September so far, taking cumulative inflows to $57.6 billion and total net assets to about $108 billion.

How the Range Gets to $215,000

In past cycles, Bitcoin climbed at least 85% above the average holder’s cost, which is about $142,000 today.

“This is a reference level for tracking the bull market, not a minimum target or a final top,” BIT’s market watchers clarified. “Historically, price has kept rising after crossing it, but there’s no guarantee that repeats.”

Last cycle, it first reached the 85% mark near $73,000 in March 2024 and peaked at $126,000, roughly 1.7 times higher. If the multiple shrinks to 1.3 to 1.5 times on a $142,000 base, the result is $185,000 to $215,000.

Timing is looser. The last cycle took about 19 months to go from the 85% level to the peak, so a similar pattern would put $200,000 around 2028 or 2029, but the analysts called that pattern-matching and described timing as highly uncertain. Closer to now, they say the asset looks stretched after a fast climb, so a pause or a larger pullback is still possible.

The post Bitcoin $215K Scenario Emerges as BTC Reclaims Key Market Levels appeared first on CryptoPotato.