Bitcoin analyst Frank Cappelleri says the OG cryptocurrency’s chart resembles the setup that preceded a 400% rally last cycle.

According to the CappThesis founder, the same technical base could support another leg higher.

Chart Mirrors the 2022 to 2023 Recovery

Speaking on CNBC, Cappelleri compared Bitcoin’s current structure with the period spanning 2022 and 2023, when BTC suffered a decline of about 70%.

He pointed to a chart of Bitcoin’s roughly 54% decline this cycle and set it beside the 70% drop mentioned above. “This also looks like a bullish pattern to me,” he said. That earlier slide ended in a large breakout, and he argued that BTC can move up hard once momentum takes hold.

“Bitcoin can really rally,” the analyst said. “It’s a 400% gain.”

However, he was careful not to project the same return this time. “Not calling for that,” Cappelleri stated, adding that he was instead looking for “a very similar foundation” that could eventually take Bitcoin back to new highs.

Cappelleri also pointed to BTC’s historical response to technical signals, saying, “Bitcoin really does well with technicals,” and arguing that its past price behavior makes those signals difficult to ignore.

BTC was valued at about $84,000 at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency experienced an increase of just over 1% in the last 24 hours and has remained more or less stable during the week. In addition, it has appreciated by about 10% in 14 days and 7% in 30 days but is 27% lower than where it was around the same time last year. Meanwhile, the asset’s third-quarter gain came to about 42%, its best Q3 since 2017.

Other Market Signals Point to a Contested Setup

As CryptoPotato reported yesterday, larger Bitcoin holders have been adding to their balances while smaller wallets have remained relatively unchanged. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 41,025 BTC over 10 days, taking their combined balance to 13.64 million BTC, with such scenarios in the past often leading to stronger market conditions.

BIT Research has also argued that the bear market ended after Bitcoin held above $62,900 in late July. Its analysis puts the True Market Mean, an estimate of the average holder cost, at around $76,900, thus taking away another source of selling pressure. The firm outlined a bullish scenario of $185,000 to $215,000, while acknowledging that the timing and path remain uncertain.

But other analysis is less straightforward, such as from Ali Martinez, who noted that BTC had fallen after each of the four previous US midterm elections, with declines ranging from 27% to 72%, adding another source of uncertainty as November approaches.

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Robinhood plans to launch perpetual futures for eligible US customers in the coming months.

CEO Vlad Tenev said the company is bringing America “its first true perps” in a post on X, adding that profit and loss will settle every 15 minutes.

Eight Crypto Assets, Up to 10x Leverage

The company announced the product on Tuesday at its HOOD Summit in Houston. Customers will be able to go long or short on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, and HYPE.

A perpetual future is a leveraged contract that tracks an asset’s price with no settlement date, so a trader can hold a position as long as they can cover it. Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts allow up to 10x leverage, while the other six are capped at 3x, and Robinhood Derivatives will provide the contracts through Bitstamp.

Trading costs one basis point (0.01%) per trade through the end of the year, which Robinhood describes as some of the lowest fees in the industry. Furthermore, users can set stop-loss and take-profit orders, watch their liquidation price in real time, and get alerts when a position is at risk.

“Ownership doesn’t work without markets, and markets don’t work without traders,” Tenev said. The CEO added that Robinhood wants to be “the best place in the world for active traders” by delivering tools once reserved for hedge funds, big banks and quant firms.

The trading platform also introduced an in-app AI tool called Robinhood Agents that will help customers create strategies, research markets and trade within preset limits, while manual trade approval is turned on by default. According to the firm, more than 15,000 users have opened agentic trading accounts since its May launch, with agents using Robinhood tools almost 30 million times a day.

In addition, the firm is bringing earnings contracts tied to company metrics such as revenue targets and earnings results. Those binary options contracts will be offered through Cboe and require options approval.

Where Robinhood Sits Among Rivals

The broader derivatives push is not limited to Robinhood. As CryptoPotato reported on September 4, Coinbase filed registrations with the SEC to offer single-stock perpetual futures to US investors, although those filings did not guarantee a launch on any set timeline.

Bybit went a different direction on leverage. Its new forex perpetuals, introduced September 8, allow up to 100x and trade around the clock, against Robinhood’s 10x ceiling.

Remember, perpetuals still carry funding costs and liquidation risks, since a position can be closed out when losses grow too large, and Robinhood has also not given an exact launch date beyond “the coming months.”

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Security firm SlowMist says North Korean hackers are laundering funds stolen from Bitget by pairing CoW Protocol orders with Chainflip deposit addresses and then converting the proceeds to Bitcoin.

The firm’s founder, who posts on X as Cos, argues that anti-money laundering checks are falling behind automated laundering scripts, even as Chainflip tried to block the flows.

SlowMist Traces the Attack Into Third-Party Systems

In a September 29 post, Cos said SlowMist had detected North Korea-linked hackers using CoW Protocol and Chainflip to move funds from Bitget. An automated script created CoW orders with the receiving address set to a pre-prepared Chainflip deposit contract. After execution, Chainflip handled the cross-chain swap, and the asset was converted to BTC.

Cos later described a broader pattern after tracking the funds for several hours. Chainflip was attempting to block the suspected laundering activity, but automated fragmentation and repeated attempts across different bridges could let the operators try another route when a transfer was rejected or returned.

The funds were ultimately converted to BTC before CoinJoin was used to obscure the movements further.

MistTrack, a crypto tracking and compliance platform built by SlowMist, reported that Chainflip had rejected one attempted deposit. The message returned was “Deposit rejected by the broker,” but the funds were refunded rather than frozen.

Recall that MistTrack had earlier highlighted that funds from the Bitget hack were flowing into THORChain for cross-chain swaps, arguing that the permissionless L1 should bear responsibility for handling stolen funds. However, the DEX claimed it was decentralized and permissionless and “doesn’t censor by design.”

SlowMist’s investigation traced the theft itself to activity that started before the transfers, with the earliest malicious acts in available logs dating back to August 31, when a service on one third-party product was compromised through a zero-day vulnerability.

The attacker later accessed a second product’s management platform on September 25 using an internal employee identity and attempted to inject commands and write malicious files.

Withdrawal Tool Connected the Attack to On-Chain Transfers

SlowMist also recovered a customized withdrawal tool from deleted files that was tailored to Bitget’s wallet withdrawal logic, forging risk-control parameters, constructing withdrawal requests, and invoking the withdrawal process.

Logs show it began executing the theft at 01:49 on September 25, with on-chain activity starting at 02:31 as 93 TRX was sent to the attacker’s address, followed 11 seconds later by 0.84 ETH arriving on Ethereum.

The transfers continued across several blockchains until 05:23, covering about 2 hours and 52 minutes. At the same time, the attacker also attempted to alter withdrawal records and trigger additional BTC withdrawals, according to the SlowMist report.

Bitget attributed the incident to a backend system in its wallet infrastructure rather than a stolen private key, and the exchange has said its User Protection Fund will cover those affected by the incident.

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Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, told an interviewer at KBW 2026 in Seoul that he expects to see Ethereum hit $10,000 by the end of the year.

That’s more than three times the current price near $2,700, with ETH still trading about 46% below its all-time high.

The $10K Case for Ethereum

In a clip CoinDesk posted on X from the KBW2026 event, Hayes gave a direct answer when asked for his Ethereum price prediction:

“$10,000 by the end of the year.”

He added that he likes ETH because he can put a large amount of money into it without expecting a sudden 75% loss from an exploit. Hayes also addressed why Ethereum has lagged other networks at different points of the cycle, putting it all down to narratives. He pointed to Solana capturing the meme coin narrative and rising quickly, while Ethereum had become slower as competing blockchains took some of the activity.

“Obviously, Ethereum pioneered this whole decentralized computer thing and then was the victim of its own success, was slow and whatever,” he said. “And there were other challengers that picked up the slack.”

Still, he argued that Ethereum remains the most secure layer one because it has the largest market capitalization.

Hayes’s own ETH trades have not always been well-timed. In August, he sold 2,365 ETH at about $1,821, a loss of $241,000, after buying 7,213 ETH at an average of $1,923. And that was not the first time. In July, he sold 5,900 units for nearly $10 million after buying them days earlier for $10.58 million, incurring a loss of more than $600,000.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was down 1% over 24 hours and nearly 3% in the last seven days, but was still up more than 11% across two weeks and 9% higher than where it was a month ago.

The investor’s $10,000 forecast requires ETH to gain roughly 3.7 times its current price, and that gap is notable because the token is still about 46% below its $4,946 all-time high.

ETF Flows Keep Ethereum in Focus

Ethereum’s quarterly record looks different from its short-term pullback. Coinglass data shows it gained just under 70% in the third quarter of 2026 after falling 29.26% in Q1 and 25.28% in Q2.

Meanwhile, spot ETF activity added another source of buying, with Ethereum ETFs recording $892 million in net inflows during September, with only one trading day left in the month.

However, the streak of daily inflows that started on September 18 ended yesterday with a $2.8 million outflow, while the previous week brought $689.9 million of net inflows. The activity has lifted cumulative inflows to $13.95 billion.

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BIT Research published a report on Wednesday arguing that Bitcoin’s bear market is over, with one upside scenario for this cycle running from $185,000 to $215,000.

The primary cryptocurrency is trading above $83,000 and looks set to finish its third straight month in the green, pushing quarterly gains to 42%.

BIT Calls the Bottom on Holder Profits

The firm says it called the cycle low in late July, after Bitcoin hit a downside target from Elliott Wave analysis and held above $62,900.

Weekly RSI, a gauge of how hard prices are falling, stopped dropping in June and July even as price made new lows, a split the report compares to the 2022 bottom. BTC then crossed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and reclaimed $70,000. It now trades around $83,000, above its March 2024 high of $73,084.

The report leaned on cost basis, with the True Market Mean, the estimated average price holders paid, sitting at $76,897, so the typical holder and the average spot ETF buyer are back in profit; therefore, in the analysts’ view, this removes a source of selling pressure.

Another thing BIT considered was the fact that US federal debt has passed $40 trillion, and rising Treasury yields caused by worries over government finances can send money toward gold and BTC.

Its debt model gives a reference valuation near $105,000, but the main headwind is a stronger dollar, with traders pricing in more Fed rate hikes and the Strait of Hormuz still closed. However, the firm does not expect it to derail the rally, since past dollar strength has hurt gold more than Bitcoin.

The OG crypto has traded between $83,000 and $85,000 since a rejection near $87,000 last week, and at the time of writing, CoinGecko showed it just above that $83,000 level, although it represented a dip of over 4% in seven days.

Still, that price is a nearly 10% improvement across two weeks and more than 7% higher than where it was 30 days ago. Coinglass data puts the third quarter at +42.22%, the best quarter since Q4 2024 and the best Q3 performance since 2017.

ETF flows have also improved, with the funds recording $2.8 billion of net inflows in September so far, taking cumulative inflows to $57.6 billion and total net assets to about $108 billion.

How the Range Gets to $215,000

In past cycles, Bitcoin climbed at least 85% above the average holder’s cost, which is about $142,000 today.

“This is a reference level for tracking the bull market, not a minimum target or a final top,” BIT’s market watchers clarified. “Historically, price has kept rising after crossing it, but there’s no guarantee that repeats.”

Last cycle, it first reached the 85% mark near $73,000 in March 2024 and peaked at $126,000, roughly 1.7 times higher. If the multiple shrinks to 1.3 to 1.5 times on a $142,000 base, the result is $185,000 to $215,000.

Timing is looser. The last cycle took about 19 months to go from the 85% level to the peak, so a similar pattern would put $200,000 around 2028 or 2029, but the analysts called that pattern-matching and described timing as highly uncertain. Closer to now, they say the asset looks stretched after a fast climb, so a pause or a larger pullback is still possible.

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